​Fun with serviette math and queues

I'm inquisitive about estimating values the usage of queues and serviette math. Numbers do not want to be precise, however so long as they're near sufficient to provide an awesome concept of what is going on, then they're desirable sufficient for serviette math!

Average playtime

After looking my function in queue for five mins, my spot went down with the aid of using more or less 50 / minute. Assuming that 10,000 gamers can log in at anyone second, then we study one character sign off each 1/50 of a minute, or 1.2 seconds. Multiply this with the aid of using 10,000, and the common character will take round 12000 seconds to sign off, which is ready three hours and 20 mins.

As quickly because the queue duration exceeds the world capacity, the bulk of time spent with the aid of using the common participant might be sitting in queue. With a queue of approximately 14000, the full period of a gaming consultation, along with queue simulator time, is 8 hours!

For the sake of serviette math aleven though, allow's anticipate that the common participant will spend three.33 hours gambling the sport, despite the fact that they do not should slog thru the queue.

Carbon footprint of queues

Let's anticipate that if queues had been instant, as opposed to sitting in queues, human beings had been alternatively to show their computer systems off. If the common pc consumes a hundred watts, then over one hour the value is $zero.01. If you spot a queue of 13500, which means 13,500 human beings will want to preserve their computer systems on for four hours every. That's $540, only for the only queue you spot, and only for the those who are in queue at that one second.

Estimating the range of geographical regions with queues, and estimating the range of those who will see the ones lengthy queues is greater challenging. If we had been to anticipate that four geographical regions every have queues of 13,500 human beings, and this lasts for five hours, then four * 50 new human beings will want to fill up the queue each minute for a duration of fifty hours, that is 60,000 human beings. That method we've got 240,000 hours of queue simulator time, that is $2400.

You can purchase a carbon offset for approximately $10. Also, it seems that one offset is ready 1 ton of carbon, that is the burden of the carbon in a a hundred 12 months antique tree.

If Blizzard had been to eliminate queues and burn down 239 timber every night time, that might be higher for the environment. The agency could want to plant 6 acres of timber every night time to offset the ecological effect of the queues.

Game exceptional

Queues are not getting shorter, so allow's anticipate that everybody considers it profitable to pay $15 for a month-to-month subscription and nevertheless take a seat down thru queues. However, simply so that we've got some thing to calculate, allow's anticipate that if queues get 1 minute longer on common, every person could give up the sport (despite the fact that, then queues could be quick, however I do not need to whip out calculus to estimate marginal values).

Without queues, the cost of WoW to the common character is X. With queues, the cost is pretty a chunk decrease. Previously we assumed that an person will spend three.33 hours gambling WoW, no matter how lengthy it takes them to get thru the queue. Now, allow's anticipate that the period of an person's common gaming consultation is constant at 7.33 hours. If the cost of gambling the sport is 1 and the cost of gambling queue simulator is zero, then the modern nation of factors with four hour queues method that the sport exceptional is three.33 / 7.33 == 45.four% of WoW with out queues.

However, we are nevertheless deciding to buy subs, so which means we might be inclined to pay $15 in step with month for a recreation this is 45.four% as desirable as WoW. Alternatively, Blizzard should restoration queues and price $33 for a one month subscription, and we might be similarly as irritated as we're approximately the queues.

If the full realm populace is 190,000 human beings, then which means Blizzard should restoration queues and price an greater $three.four million bucks in step with month.

How many gamers are virtually quitting?

Let's anticipate that it prices Blizzard $10,000 to spin up one greater layer for a realm, and every layer can accommodate 2500 human beings. That method it'd take six greater layers to eliminate queues from Benediction. Assuming that 54,000 are sitting in queues at anyone second, it'd take 22 greater layers, or $220,000. This is more or less the carbon effect of queues for a three month duration.

It takes 1222 subscriptions over a 12 months to pay for the ones 22 greater layers. Since Blizzard is not including layers, that need to imply that it expects to lose fewer than 1222 gamers (or zero.6% of the playerbase) because of lengthy queues.

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